Groundhog Day forecasts
Are right three times out of eight –
So swap the meanings –
Of what seeing their shadows
Mean for more accuracy
Copyright by Minh Tan on listed dated of completion.
Notes to this poem…
A little late on the thought of groundhogs, at least for a poem as I had written about it on my main blog. And even later on the posting due to business and forgetfulness, combined.
Simple logic is this. Outcomes of a groundhog seeing his/her shadow is like a coin flip in terms of two possibilities and getting one right. So if one is getting things wrong more than half the time, changing what those results mean would allow one to be right more than half the time. The groundhog is right 37% of the time, apparently, from a study done in Canada (only in Canada). I have the link in my blog post link above. So if one were to re-interpret what seeing his/her shadow meant, it would be right 5 of 8 times, rather than 3 of 8 times.
But don’t forget, you also produce a shadow if you step outside and it’s sunny. So does anyone else you can see if you don’t want to go outside yourself! Do you really need that groundhog? 😉
Your results would also be more localized to you, which is such an important thing in weather to have a local forecast!